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The CASA Framework:
Complex Analysis for Socio-Environmental Adaptation

The US Office of Naval Research has asked IHS to partner with a superb team in Valparaiso, Chile for the development of a community-based and climate-focused resilience model. The model is a mathematical tool based on complexity theory, economic theory, psychology, environmental metrics, and demographic surveys.


We're fortunate to have partners and affiliates from Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois and from the Santa Fe Institute for Complexity Sciences in New Mexico, and the IHS team has already published multiple journal articles, with more forthcoming. We've also created a brief video about our recent evaluations, posted here.

The first test of the model was in the fishing village of Puchuncavi about an hour north of Valparaiso in an industrial area known as a "Sacrifice Zone". While the evaluation went well, the amount of human and environmental damage we revealed was disheartening. The results have been shared with the Puchuncavi civil administration. 

Further testing of the model (which requires no personally identifiable information at any stage) will take place during 2024-2025, in Puerto Williams, Chile, the southernmost permanent human habitation on earth. That evaluation will be in partnership with:

(1) The civil administration of Puerto Williams

(2) The Chilean Navy Base adjacent to the town on the west side, and

(3) The Yahgan indigenous community across the river on the east side.

Further information is available from Dr. Rasmussen, the co-Principal Investigator on the Grant at IHS.

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